baseballot - Tweet Data Analysis
Tweets Analysis - Keyword: @baseballot
2023年3月9日に公開
概要
Tweets covering
9 days
Latest tweet was on
2023-02-18
Earliest tweet was on
2023-02-09
Total number of tweets analysed
241
Average age of authors' accounts
9 years
要約
This conversation is about the accuracy of presidential polling two years prior to the election and whether or not doubting polls is responsible. FiveThirtyEight is criticized for giving fake pollsters an 'A' rating in its model, which is considered irresponsible by some. It is also discussed that Democrats typically register to vote later in their twenties than Republicans and this could be due to a shift in opinion or other factors. Additionally, the topic of a reform synagogue is brought up and it is mentioned that where the convention is held doesn't matter as much as who attends it. Finally, it is suggested that two successive voter files can be analyzed in order to come to more persuasive conclusions about age-period-cohort models.
トピックモデリング
- Presidential polling accuracy
- Poll denialism
- 538 grading polls
- Electional denialism
- Lower voter registration rates
感情分析
The tweets express a range of emotions, from amusement and sarcasm to concern and panic. The conversation revolves around the accuracy of presidential polling and the implications of poll denialism. There is also discussion about the effects of differential registration on voting trends, and some disbelief at the idea of casting doubt on polls. The overall tone is one of skepticism and debate, with some moments of lightheartedness.
トレンド分析
- Presidential polling accuracy
- Poll denialism versus election denialism
- 538's grading system for pollsters
- 2012 voter file analysis
- Educational polarization impacting voting patterns
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ツイートの種類
Number of Retweets
51
全体の21%
Number of Original tweets
0
全体の0%
Number of tweets that were Quotes
14
全体の5%
Number of tweets that were Replies
190
全体の78%
Number of tweets that contain Hashtags
6
全体の2%
Number of tweets that contain Mentions
241
全体の100%
ツイートに使用されたデバイス
トップ5デバイス
| Source | Count |
|---|---|
| Twitter for iPhone | 96 |
| Twitter Web App | 80 |
| Twitter for Android | 56 |
| Twitter for iPad | 5 |
| TweetDeck | 4 |
デバイス分布
フォロワー数上位10アカウント
| Username | Name | Bio | Followers count |
|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | FiveThirtyEight | Data-driven news and analysis from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight | 1,307,045 |
| Nate_Cohn | Nate Cohn | chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat. | 488,425 |
| bresreports | John Bresnahan | Co-Founder of Punchbowl News. Yankees fan forever. john @ https://t.co/yV4Kr3yM96 | 125,009 |
| gelliottmorris | G. Elliott Morris | Data Journalist + US Correspondent for @TheEconomist. Author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS (https://t.co/c8nxYdnpks) & my newsletter on data & politics (https://t.co/PE6cfXDGQN) | 117,893 |
| ElectProject | Michael McDonald | Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections. | 93,228 |
| davidshor | (((David Shor))) | Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami. I try to elect Democrats. Views are my own. he/him🌹 | 74,598 |
| aedwardslevy | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Polling + election analytics editor @CNN; keeping (cross)tabs on public opinion and the news. LA native, formerly @HuffPost. I like puns. | 66,191 |
| aseitzwald | Alex Seitz-Wald | Senior Digital Politics Reporter for @NBCNews. | 62,911 |
| baseballot | Nathaniel Rakich | Sabermetric-minded politics writer, social-science-minded baseball writer. Elections @FiveThirtyEight. | 57,720 |
| lxeagle17 | Lakshya Jain | @cal alum; computer scientist/machine learning engineer; election analyst/modeler/partner @SplitTicket_. views my own. he/him | 33,745 |
フォロー数上位10アカウント
| Username | Name | Bio | Followers count |
|---|---|---|---|
| VivaRevolt | VivaRevolt | Retweet≠endorsement,Poli Sci/IR Grad Student,History&Poli Sci Graduate,Updates on Syria,following Egypt,Kurdistan,Palestine,Libya,Iraq,Yemen,Sudan,Tunisia,US,Wx | 15,333 |
| xenocryptsite | Xenocrypt | Politics, math, etc. GitHub pages page: https://t.co/fBpQtqLvYl Medium: https://t.co/1gnQzJWJQ5Blogspot: https://t.co/ACCsP5BP6R@[email protected] | 5,762 |
| rubyshooz8 | DEMOCRATS ARE CRUSHING MIDDLECLASS ON PURPOSE | #Gratitude #AllLivesMatter #UltraMAGA ♥️🤍🖤🇺🇸💙 | 5,114 |
| cincodejordan | Jordan Dodson | I am a all around popular guy! ♉️, #TeamLightSkin Instagram:jor_jor_94 #SWDHS Alumni Snapchat:@cincodejordan CashApp: $JQDods94 | 5,002 |
| TWLadyGrey | LadyGrey 🇦🇲🇺🇦 | Immigrant. Techie. Pro-Democracy Progressive. Tweeting about US politics, Armenia, authoritarianism, and random takes. | 5,001 |
| edmunds_dowling | Ryan Edmunds Dowling- #PSU #Feminist | I'm a PSU student for life and an Arizona Boy, Baseball is the best sport, I'll always love Arizona sports teams and I still love romantic walks on the beach | 4,981 |
| beardedcrank | The Bearded Crank 🗹 | Polls and Bing Crosby Christmas albums.Weds Nov 4th 2020 my bio changes to "Sherrod would've won"."Lawn signs don't vote" = blocked and reported. | 4,966 |
| CorruptedLiars | Elon Musk, Purveyor of Conspiracy and Hate Speech | Equal justice and rights for all, or peace for none. | 4,531 |
| bresreports | John Bresnahan | Co-Founder of Punchbowl News. Yankees fan forever. john @ https://t.co/yV4Kr3yM96 | 4,336 |
| mikegehrke | Mike Gehrke | Even though I have a wealth of my own opinions, I am still willing to tell you what I think of yours. You're welcome. [email protected] | 4,327 |
最もアクティブなユーザー
| Username | Bio | Number of tweets |
|---|---|---|
| xenocryptsite | Politics, math, etc. GitHub pages page: https://t.co/fBpQtqLvYl Medium: https://t.co/1gnQzJWJQ5Blogspot: https://t.co/ACCsP5BP6R@[email protected] | 14 |
| davidshor | Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami. I try to elect Democrats. Views are my own. he/him🌹 | 12 |
| Nate_Cohn | chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat. | 11 |
| PoliticalKiwi | No poor people in a rich country.Likes politics and maths.he/him | 6 |
| Polit_eurOpines | proud red white and blue Democrat for the downtrodden and forgottenUndeterred I continued postingco/they/he Politics | Maps: @Polit_eur | 5 |
| starling_ren | - | 4 |
| NickRiccardi | AP western political writer. Father, hiker, pizza snob, Mets fan. RTs confirm your darkest suspicions. NRiccardi(at)APdotorg. DM for Signal, WhatsApp | 3 |
| beardedcrank | Polls and Bing Crosby Christmas albums.Weds Nov 4th 2020 my bio changes to "Sherrod would've won"."Lawn signs don't vote" = blocked and reported. | 3 |
| N_J____ | - | 3 |
| EricssenWen | *Elections Research Analyst @Meta *Singapore Correspondent @kompascom | 3 |
日別ツイート数
リツイート数上位10ツイート
| ID | Text | Retweet count |
|---|---|---|
| 1626394904141381634 | @Nate_Cohn @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI My other rant about age is that everyone implicitly assumes these age-period-cohort models that don’t actually fit the data very well. … | 3 |
| 1626388888812982272 | @ChrisatPTS @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI It’s the truth. Maps + making stuff up gets a lot of RTs tho | 2 |
| 1626418327047512067 | @Nate_Cohn @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI The “2016 was 1968” analogy keeps on winning | 2 |
| 1626392760457781248 | @Nate_Cohn @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI Fwiw if you do two way party reg by age you get a pretty similar plummeting in the lower 20’s going … | 2 |
| 1626385028576935936 | @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI and this is a national phenomenon, btw. we’ve been sitting on this for a while, pending a little more survey data | 2 |
| 1624071970601029634 | @baseballot Does the sight of a national convention make any difference to voters at all? It’s basically a TV event. I can’t see really many voters at all being swung … | 1 |
| 1626394179017515008 | @Nate_Cohn @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI Just to expand on that last point - you’re talking about a group with literally the lowest possible response rate and … | 1 |
| 1626393432053927936 | @Nate_Cohn @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI Some of it is differential registration- Democrats register to vote later in their 20’s than Republicans do, some is I’s becoming … | 1 |
| 1624075375457275910 | @baseballot Gonna be brutally honest for a moment: other than the people who will physically attend it, no one cares where the convention is held. | 1 |
| 1626384520948682754 | @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI congrats on being the first person on election Twitter to discover the voter file | 1 |
いいね数上位10ツイート
| ID | Text | Like count |
|---|---|---|
| 1623889502295949315 | @baseballot Is it your view that presidential polling is accurate two years out? | 43 |
| 1623878288702685184 | @baseballot irresponsible? poll denialism is not the same as election denialism, and certainly not the type of thing that can cause an insurrection or coup | 41 |
| 1623875510261669889 | @baseballot Lol ok bud | 34 |
| 1623879852167413760 | @baseballot Lmao. Saying that pollings sucks isn’t irresponsible. FiveThirtyEight giving literal fake pollsters an A rating on its model is irresponsible. | 32 |
| 1623875605870571527 | @baseballot Are you gonna cry? | 31 |
| 1626392760457781248 | @Nate_Cohn @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI Fwiw if you do two way party reg by age you get a pretty similar plummeting in the lower 20’s going … | 25 |
| 1623891418417623041 | @baseballot i think i get the sarcasm, i get that 538 has had multiple pieces on electional denialism it is just that to use the word "irresponsible" to describe casting … | 24 |
| 1626384520948682754 | @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI congrats on being the first person on election Twitter to discover the voter file | 24 |
| 1625938039536029700 | @baseballot This looks like a reform synagogue | 21 |
| 1624891756016812033 | @baseballot https://t.co/YncFQxAjsa | 20 |
使用されている上位言語
トップ10ハッシュタグ
| Hashtag | Count |
|---|---|
| #hi01 | 1 |
| #hi02 | 1 |
| #18 | 1 |
| #jvteam | 1 |
| #simpsonsdidit | 1 |
| #sotu | 1 |
トップ10メンション
| Mention | Count |
|---|---|
| @baseballot | 241 |
| @iabvek | 67 |
| @spinons | 67 |
| @birdappkj | 67 |
| @jamie_from_pi | 67 |
| @lxeagle17 | 66 |
| @xenocryptsite | 64 |
| @politicalkiwi | 61 |
| @nate_cohn | 56 |
| @davidshor | 56 |
ツイートのワードクラウド
絵文字分析
ツイートあたりの平均絵文字数:
3
使用された絵文字
| Emoji | Count | Emoji Text |
|---|---|---|
| 🤷♂️ | 2 | man_shrugging |
| 🇺🇸 | 1 | United_States |
| ☠️ | 1 | skull_and_crossbones |
| 🔥 | 1 | fire |
| 🤷♀️ | 1 | woman_shrugging |
| 😂 | 1 | face_with_tears_of_joy |
| 💪🏾 | 1 | flexed_biceps_medium-dark_skin_tone |
絵文字グループ
| Emoji Group | Count |
|---|---|
| People & Body | 4 |
| Smileys & Emotion | 2 |
| Flags | 1 |
| Travel & Places | 1 |
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